Is It Time to Invest in Real Estate?
There are indicators that the real estate market may be reaching its nadir. If so, now would be the time to consider investing in either rental property, for those interested in active management, or REITs, for those who prefer passive real estate investments.
The Wall Street Journal recently published a study prepared by LPS Applied Analytics, a leader in the collection and analysis of mortgage data. The results of this report demonstrate that the housing market is far from fully recovering. This article focuses on the “shadow inventory” of homes. These are homes that are delinquent in their mortgage payments but have not yet been foreclosed upon.
The LPS report states: “As of July, mortgage companies hadn’t begun the foreclosure process on 1.2 million loans that were at least 90 days past due, … An additional 1.5 million seriously delinquent loans were somewhere in the foreclosure process, though the lender hadn’t yet acquired the property. The figures don’t include home-equity loans and other second mortgages.”
From this we can see that the “shadow inventory” is at least 2.7 million mortgages, that have not been foreclosed upon and are at least 90 days past due.
Another section of the report states: “Moreover, there were 217,000 loans in July (2009) where the borrower hadn’t made a payment in at least a year but the lender hadn’t begun the foreclosure process. In other words, 17% of home mortgages that are at least 12 months overdue aren’t in foreclosure, up from 8% a year earlier.”
This demonstrates that the problem of delayed foreclosures is increasing and is almost double the number from one year ago.
It is interesting to understand the reasons behind this increasing “shadow inventory” of homes that are (slowly) on their way to foreclosure.
The first reason is that the banks are having difficulty with determining which homes qualify for the government’s mortgage assistance policies, which may allow the banks to modify loans with government subsidies.
The second reason is the inability of banks to handle the paperwork required for such a large amount of impending foreclosures. Most banks do not have adequate personnel to handle all of the required foreclosure documents in a timely fashion.
The third reason is the most insidious. Some banks may not want to foreclose on all of these homes. Banks are only required to write down their mortgages after they have been foreclosed upon. Up until that point, banks are allowed to maintain the full amount of the mortgage as an asset on their financial statements. If banks were forced to write down all of their delinquent mortgages, their reserves could be greatly depleted and their ability to lend could be significantly curtailed. This could lead to another banking crisis (or in reality the ultimate conclusion of the one that began in late 2007).
Amherst Securities Group LP has found that the total number of mortgages with delinquent payments tops 7 million. If that number is accurate, over 10% of all homes in the US are delinquent in their mortgage payments. Their bearish analysis considered the impact of over 7 million homes that could eventually be foreclosed upon.
It seems likely that the number of homes that will eventually hit the housing market due to foreclosure is between 2.7 million and 7 million. With this huge overhang on the real estate market, it would seem prudent to be very cautious of new real estate investments at this time.


